Speculation on Sean Payton’s future has dominated the New Orleans Saints news cycle this week, and it’s easy to see why: he’s on the move in what could be the first NFL head coach trade in years, potentially bringing back the biggest haul in a generation. At least three teams have already scheduled interviews with the Super Bowl-winning head coach, who stepped down from his post last season, and more could follow depending on the results of this weekend’s NFL playoff games.
So what’s the problem? These coach trades are few and far between in the NFL, and they rarely bring back a big return. Fans will point to the landmark Jon Gruden trade back in 2002 as an example of what the Saints should be demanding, but that deal was an outlier at the time and over the years since — of the two coach trades completed in the 20 years that followed, nothing was exchanged greater than a fourth-round draft pick.
We know that the Saints are seeking at least a first rounder with some additional assets thrown in, but they don’t have a lot of leverage here since Payton can pick his job and force New Orleans to take what they can get. So they’re hoping to settle for a fair deal rather than push the envelope in hopes of getting the best deal possible.
So what kind of historical context are we working with here? We’ve got some really nice insight from Jon Heath over at Broncos Wire, which you can find here, but let’s summarize it: