Here’s some breaking news: head coach Dennis Allen says the New Orleans Saints will start Andy Dalton again at quarterback in Week 8’s game with the Las Vegas Raiders. Allen adds that Winston is “back healthy” but there was “no need to upset the apple cart” in making another change under center.
Dalton went 1-3 during his first four starts in relief of Winston, who led the team during its 1-2 start to the season before the Saints put him on ice with back and ankle injuries. Both of them have committed turnovers at a worrying pace, but Dalton has done a better job avoiding sacks and weaponizing pass-catchers like Alvin Kamara. Hopefully it will begin to make a difference.
So as Allen explained it, this is about performance, not health. So let’s take a closer look at that. Dalton has attempted 131 passes in his four starts, completing 83 of them (63.4%) and scoring 7 touchdown passes (5.3%) while throwing 4 interceptions (3.1%) and taking 4 sacks (3%), fumbling once — running close to league-average. Put all that together and you’ll get an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.55. Unremarkable at best, not really losing games, but hardly enough help you win games, either. It’s forgettable football and clearly not a long-term solution with a 33-year old quarterback.
And now here’s where Winston clocks in: he attempted 115 passes across three starts, completing 73 of them (63.5%) and scoring 4 touchdown passes (3.5%) against 5 interceptions (4.3%) and taking 11 sacks (8.7%), with three fumbles. His ANY/A is 5.07, which is actively detrimental, and that’s reflected in the worse percentage rates for his negative plays. Winston was playing hurt and that clearly hampered his performance, but he was working with a better supporting cast than what Dalton has now. He’s also 28 and is who he is at this stage in his career. There isn’t much potential for growth after Winston’s 86 games in the NFL.
So here’s where we’re at: Allen believes that Dalton gives his team a better chance to win right now, and that’s borne out in the numbers. The Saints offense is averaging 31 points per game with Dalton after averaging just 17 points per game with Winston. Winston is probably the better quarterback if all things were equal, but they aren’t, and Dalton’s version of the offense has been more effective (if still beneath New Orleans’ standards). And at the end of the day, neither Dalton nor Winston should be starting for the Saints this time next year barring some unprecedented turnaround. They’ve got to aim higher if Allen’s teams are going to be competitive moving forwards.