The 2025 NBA Draft was completed three weeks ago, with Duke’s Cooper Flagg as expected going No. 1 overall to the Dallas Mavericks. So, I figured there wasn’t a better time than to do a deep analysis on the No. 1 overall picks since 2000. So, here is a look at the tiering rating system of this century’s No. 1 selections and whether they were the right choice.
Analyzing All No. 1 NBA Draft Picks Since 2000
Hall of Famers
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers 2003
There really isn’t much more to say about LeBron James than has already been said. While not personally a fan of LBJ, James is the most productive player in NBA history and top three players ever, behind Michael Jordan and perhaps Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Saying that James is not even close to being the most complete or talented player in the league, though he does get a ton of credit for his work ethic and growth.
Cleveland had an easy decision. James was the most talented player in the 2003 draft. The Cavaliers would have received a lot of backlash if they didn’t select the hometown hero.
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic 2004
Dwight Howard was one of the best players in the league for an eight-year period between 2006 and 2014. Howard, inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame this year, is one of the most dominant centers of this century, as he has impacted both ends of the court.
A three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Howard was selected to the All-NBA First Team on six occassions. The eight-time all-star played 18 seasons in the NBA and won an NBA championship in 2020. He ranks 61st in the NBA in scoring, 11th in rebounding (6th offensively), and 15th in blocks.
Howard averaged a double-double for his career (15.1 points, 11.8 rebounds). Granted, his production dramatically fell off in his last three seasons. However, he remained productive while coming off the bench during the Los Angeles Lakers’ “Bubble” title run.
Howard is undoubtedly the best player from the 2004 NBA draft and was the right choice for the Magic. Andre Iguodala, selected ninth overall, was a close second.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans 2012
Anthony Davis is one of the best two-way centers still in the game despite being 32. Davis has a lot left in his tank if he can stay healthy. Among active players, the 10-time all-star ranks 10th in scoring, sixth in rebounds per game, and second in blocks. He also helped James and the Los Angeles Lakers win a title in 2020. Davis should have been the No. 1 pick in 2012, though Damian Lillard is making the case that he is having the best career.
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers 2011
Kyrie Irving isn’t done playing and likely has a few more seasons left in the tank. The 33-year-old is expected to miss the majority of the 2025-26 season with a knee injury, which has been a regular theme for the nine-time all-star recently. He has not played in more than 65 games since the 2018-19 season and has appeared in 779 games over his 14-year career.
The three-time all-NBA selection is a magician with the ball. He is an excellent shooter who is a three-level scorer and a superb ballhandler. He won an NBA title with James and the Cavaliers in 2016. Irving was the player that the Cavs needed and was the right pick in a loaded 2011 that also included Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler.
All-Star
Yao Ming, 2002 Houston Rockets
Yao was fantastic for the NBA and the Rockets. But injuries to his foot and ankle limited the 7-6 center to eight seasons.
Yao, the first international player ever to be selected first overall without having previously played college basketball, was elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2016. The eight-time all-star made all-NBA second or third teams five times. He finished his career with career averages of 19.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.
The Rockets made the right choice by selecting Yao at No. 1 in 2002. However, the Rockets may have been better off going with Carlos Boozer or Amar’e Stoudemire.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers, 2009
Blake Griffin had a tremendous NBA career, and he was just as good a showman as he was a player. However, like so many players this century, Griffin had his career derailed by injuries. Still, the high-flying 2011 NBA Slam Dunk winner was one of the best scorers and rebounders in the league during the early years of his career. He was the NBA ROY in 2011 and a six-time All-Star.
Griffin is a top-three player from the 2003 draft. But the Clippers would have likely been better off selecting Stephen Curry, the No. 7 overall pick.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves 2015
Karl-Anthony Towns is now the NBA’s prototypical big man, as he is an athletic, outstanding rebounder and scorer who can stretch the floor with his shooting. He is also a decent rim protector.
The five-time all-star and 2015-16 Rookie of the Year is coming off his healthiest and productive seasons in three years. He has averaged 20 points in each of his last nine campaigns and has career averages of 23.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.2 blocks.
While Towns is now in New York, he was unquestionably the right choice for the Knicks with the No. 1 pick.
Starter
Kenyon Martin, New Jersey Nets 2000
Known for his defense, rebounding, and toughness, Kenyon Martin had a solid 15-year career. However, Martin didn’t age extremely well, and he left for China in 2011, returning stateside as a non-regular rotational player. He made one all-star game and averaged double-figure points in each of his first nine seasons.
Martin is a top-five player in the 2000 draft class. Martin was a major contributor as the Nets reached the Conference Finals in 2002 and 2003. He was the right pick for the Nets at No. 1.
Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls 2008
Derrick Rose was a prime talent whose career stalled out due to injuries. He played in the NBA for 15 seasons, although he appeared in 64 or more games just five times and played in a total of 723 contests.
Rose was an outstanding two-way point guard who was just as good a distributor as a scorer. The 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year was a three-time All-Star and 2011 league MVP. However, he struggled with his 3-point shooting and turnovers.
Chicago made the playoffs in seven of Rose’s eight seasons in the Windy City, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2011. However, in hindsight, the Bulls would have been better off selecting any number of players from a loaded class. Since Russell Westbrook is a similar player to Rose, he would have been a perfect fit with the Bulls. Oklahoma City chose Westbrook with the draft’s fifth pick.
John Wall, Washington Wizards 2010
John Wall is another No. 1 draft pick who has not been able to fulfill his potential due to injuries. Wall, who last played in the NBA during the 2022-23 season, was a talented scorer and an exceptional playmaker. However, the five-time all-star wasn’t a great shooter.
If Wall’s career is truly over, he finishes with 19.0 points, 8.9 assists, and 4.2 rebounds along with shooting splits of 43/32.2/68.1. He spent most of his 11-year career, appearing in 647 games, with the Wizards. Paul George, who went No. 10 overall, would have been a better selection for the Wizards with the first pick.
DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix Suns 2018
DeAndre Ayton has been unfairly maligned in recent years, but the nearly 27-year-old is an uber-talented and productive player. Health has been an issue for the 7-footer, and his production has dipped in recent seasons. However, he has produced a double-double in each of his seven professional years, averaging 16.4 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks for his career.
Expect Ayton to have a revitalization with the Los Angeles Lakers. Still, Luka Doncic — selected with the No. 3 pick — and Shai Alexander-Gilgeous — No. 11 selection — probably would have been the better pick for the Suns.
Zion Williamson, 2019 New Orleans
Zion Williamson’s star is probably as dim as Ayton’s. However, like Ayton, Williamson has been productive, but he struggles to stay healthy. Williamson appeared in just 30 contests last season, meaning he has played fewer than 30 games in four of his six professional seasons, including missing the entire 2021-22 campaign.
A two-time all-star, Williamson could move up to perennial all-star or drop to bust depending on his health for the remainder of his career. Ja Morant, the No. 2 pick, likely would be the top overall selection in 2019 based on what we know today. However, can’t argue with Williamson’s talent. Of course, Morant has his issues.
Andrew Wiggins, Cleveland Cavaliers 2014
Andrew Wiggins has been a solid pro. Named the 2015 NBA Rookie of the Year, Wiggins has been a consistent scorer throughout his 11-year career. He also has improved his three-point marksmanship exponentially since leaving Kansas. The one-time all-star, who won an NBA title in 2022 with Golden State, averages 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 44.9/35.6/72.5.
Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks
Andrew Bogut shouldn’t have been the No. 1 overall pick in 2005. However, the 7-foot Australian, known for his defensive prowess, had a solid 14-year career.
Bogut was a starting center for the first 11 seasons of his career. He was selected All-League twice (second and third), led the league in blocks once, and was among the top 10 in Defensive Player of the Year voting on four occasions.
Chris Paul, who went fourth in the 2005 draft, should have been the top pick.
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors 2006
Andrea Bargnani was the first European to be selected as the NBA’s top pick. Bargnani had a productive yet injury-filled 10-year NBA career. While appearing in just 550 career games, he averaged 14.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists while shooting 43.9/35.4/82.4.
Bargnani is a borderline No. 1 bust. LaMarcus Aldridge, who went No. 2 overall, would have been a better pick for the Raptors.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers 2016
Like Bargnani, Ben Simmons is a borderline bust. The 28-year-old has been productive when healthy, but that has been the key to his success. Simmons hasn’t played in more than 60 games since his second season. Besides staying healthy, shooting has been his most significant issue.
Simmons is an outstanding passer, rebounder, and versatile defender. He has produced 13.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists in 383 career games.
Domantas Sabonis, who was drafted with the 11th overall selection and dealt to Oklahoma City on draft night, would have been among the better choices at the top spot than Simmons. However, Brandon Ingram or Jaylen Brown should have been drafted by the Sixers.
Still To Be Determined
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs 2023
Victor Wembanyama still has a long career ahead of him. However, the 21-year-old is a basketball freak of nature, given his size and skills. However, like other top picks listed above, the key for the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year will be whether he can stay healthy. He was limited to 46 games this past season due to a blood clot in his leg.
If the 2024 Rookie of the Year remains healthy, he has the potential to be a Hall of Famer, with a perennial All-Star being the floor. Wembanyama showed improvement in his second year before his season was cut short prematurely. He needs to continue improving his 3-point shooting, but he is a double-double and shot-blocking machine.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons 2021
Cade Cunningham has improved each of his four years with the Pistons. The 23-year-old is coming off a career season, earning his first all-star nod and 3rd Team All-NBA honors, averaging 26.1 points along with 9.1 assists, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.0 steals. He also knocked down 2.1 treys with shooting splits of 46.9/35.6/84.6.
While turnovers are still a considerable issue, Cunningham is one of the best point guards in the issue. He helped the Pistons end a five-year playoff drought, and their 44 victories were the most since the 2015-16 season. Like Wembanyama, Cunningham’s floor is a perennial all-star.
Detroit can’t be disappointed with Cunningham’s development and probably would take him with the top selection if they had to do it over again. However, Alperen Sengun, Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner have been at least as productive, if not more.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic 2022
Paolo Banchero will be in Orlando for the foreseeable future as the 22-year-old forward inked a five-year deal worth as much as $287 million. While Banchero missed nearly half of the 2024-25 season, he still performed fantastically and helped the Magic reach the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in the 2020s. He is going to be one of the stars of the league for years to come, though he does have to be more consistent as a 3-point shooter.
Since Orlando has been looking for a center in recent years, perhaps Chet Holmgren would have been a better choice for the Magic with the No. 1 pick. But the Magic are probably overjoyed that they took Banchero.
Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks 2025
Cooper Flagg is the most hyped American prospect since probably LeBron, for good reason. The kid can play, and while not an elite athlete, he possesses a high basketball IQ, and there are no significant weaknesses in his game.
Flagg had an uneven NBA Las Vegas Summer League Debut on Friday, though he made two key plays to secure an 87-85 victory for the Mavericks over the Lakers.
Here is Tim McMahon of ESPN’s recap of Flagg’s last game heroics:
“Flagg swooped in from the weak side to swat away Los Angeles Lakers guard DJ Steward‘s driving layup attempt with 1:10 remaining in Thursday night’s NBA 2K26 Summer League opener. Flagg then pushed the ball down the floor in transition, drew three defenders as he approached the paint, and found teammate Ryan Nembhard wide open for a 3-pointer that gave the Dallas Mavericks the lead for good in an 87-85 win.”
The Duke product finished the game with 10 points, on 5 of 21 shooting, including 0 of 5 from deep, and six rebounds. He also added four assists, three steals, and the previously mentioned block, along with one turnover in 32 minutes.
Zaccharie Risacher, 2024 Atlanta Hawks
Zaccharie Risacher entered the league as a versatile wing defender who needed to develop his offensive game. While the 20-year-old didn’t light up the league, he showed improvement throughout the season and earned All-Rookie First Team honors. His best month of the season was March, where he averaged 16.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 assists with shooting splits of 53.3/39.3/73.9.
It is way too early to tell whether Risacher was the right pick at No. 1, but Zach Edey, Kel’el Ware, Donovan Clingan, and Rookie of the Year winner Stephon Castle had outstanding seasons this past year.
Busts
Kwame Brown, Washington Wizards 2001
Kwame Brown is one of the poster boys for top NBA draft pick busts. Brown played 12 seasons in the league and appeared in 607 games, though he started fewer than half of them, and only averaged 10 points and seven rebounds for a season once.
Pau Gasol, who went third to Atlanta, would have been the right pick at No. 1 for the Wizards.
Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers 2007
Greg Oden sat out four of the seven years he was in the NBA due to injuries. He appeared in just 106 games over the seven seasons, with 61 contests being the most he played in a campaign. Kevin Durant should have gone to Portland with the top pick instead of to Seattle at No. 2
Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers 2013
While Brown is considered one of the biggest No. 1 draft busts in NBA history, Oden and Anthony Bennett are bigger busts. Bennett was out of the league after four seasons, as he appeared in just 151 contests.
Cleveland should have gone with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who the Bucks nabbed at No. 15.
Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76er,s 2017
Similarly to Bennett and arguably Brown, Markelle Fultz had no business being the No. 1 overall pick. Granted, Fultz has put up a couple of solid seasons, but he has struggled to stay healthy. He has been a solid distributor and defender, though 3-point shooting has also been an issue throughout his eight-year career.
Jayson Tatum, the No. 3 selection in 2017, is a top-three player today and should have been the top choice in the 2017 draft.
© Candice Ward, Imagn Images
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